1-in-6 wins alan decides to use a different strategy for the 1-in-6 wins game of exercise 85. he keeps buying one 20-ounce bottle of the soda at a time until he gets a winner. (a) find the probability that he buys exactly 5 bottles. show your work. (b) find the probability that he buys no more than 8 bottles. show your work.

a)

b)

Explanation:

Given data:

Probability of success = 1/6

1) Probability of buying 5  same bottles is calculated as

from information given we have

percentile x = 5

Probability of success = 1/6

hence from geometric distribution calculator we have

geometpdf (1/6, 5) = 0.06691

2) probability of buying not more than 8 bottles

percentile x = 8

geometpdf(1/6, 8) = 0.791784

a manufacturer of printed circuit boards uses exponential smoothing with trend to forecast monthly demand of its product. at the end of december, the company wishes to forecast sales for january. the estimate of trend through november has been 200 additional boards sold per month. average sales have been around 1000 units per month. the demand for december was 1100 units. the company uses α = 0.20 and β = 0.10. make a forecast including trend for the month of january.