Business, 10.06.2020 18:57 Baby010391

An investor is deciding whether to build a retail store. If she invests in the store and it is successful, she expects a return of $100,000 in the first year. If the store is not successful, she will suffer a loss of $80,000. She guesses that the probability that the store will be a success is 0.6. To remove some of the uncertainty from this decision, the investor tries to establish more information, but this market research will cost $20,000. If she spends this money, she will have more confidence in her investment. There is a 0.6 probability that this information will be favorable; if it is, the likelihood that the store will be a success increases to 0.9. If the information is not favorable, the likelihood that the store will be a success reduces to only 0.2. Of course, she can elect to do nothing. A) Draw the associated decision tree.
B) What do you recommend?
C) How much is the information worth?
Replace all the monetary values with the following utilities
Monetary Value Utility
$100,000 1.00
$80,000 0.40
$0 0.20
-$20,000 0.10
-$80,000 0.05
-$100,000 0.00
A) What do you recommend, based on expected utility?
B) Is the investor a risk soeker or a risk avoider?

Answers: 3

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An investor is deciding whether to build a retail store. If she invests in the store and it is succe...

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