The Blaine Development Corporation (BDC) is reconsidering the Lummi Resort Hotel project. It would be located on the picturesque banks of Birch Bay and have its own championship-level golf course. The cost to purchase the land would be $1 million, payable immediately. Construction costs would be approximately $2 million, due at the end of year 1. However, the construction costs are uncertain. These costs could be up to 20 percent higher or lower than the estimate of $2 million with an equal chance (uniform distribution). BDC’s best estimate for the annual operating profit to be generated in years 2, 3, 4, and 5 is $700,000. Due to the great uncertainty, the estimate of the standard deviation of the annual operating profit in each year also is $700,000. Assume that the yearly profits are statistically independent and follow the normal distribution. After year 5, BDC plans to sell the hotel. The selling price is likely to be somewhere between $4 and $8 million (assume a uniform distribution), and revenue will be received in year 5. Interest has been r = 5% (and you can ignore inflation), so you can simplify your net present value (NPV) calculation to be NPV = summation of [ (pi(t)-c(t)) / ( (1-r)^t )] where t varies from 0 to 5
where pi(t) is operating profit and ct is cost of land and construction, both in period t. Simulate the NPV 1000 times. What is the mean and standard deviation of the NPV of the project?