The following table shows a tool and die company's quarterly sales for the current year. What are sales for the first quarter of next year? Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 Sales 88 99 108 141.4 Seasonal Relatives 1.1 0.99 0.9 1.01 Deseasonalized 80 100 120 140 Trend 1. Deseasonalize 2. Naïve forecast of trend 3. Reseasonalize

Quarter 1, Sales 88. seasonal relatives 1.1

Deseasonalized = 88 / 1.1 = 80

Quarter 2, Sales 99. seasonal relatives 0.99

Deseasonalized = 99 / 0.99 = 100

Trend =80+(100-80) = 100

Reseasonalized  = 100*0.99 = 99

Quarter 3, Sales 108, seasonal relatives 0.9

Deseasonalized = 108 / 0.9 = 120

Trend =1000+ (120-100) = 120

Reseasonalized  = 1120*0.9 = 108

Quarter 4, Sales 141.4, seasonal relatives 1.01

Deseasonalized = 141.1 / 1.01 = 140

Trend =120+ (140-120) = 140

Reseasonalized  = 140*1.01 = 141.4

Now to get the Naive trend forecast for the next year first quarter, we say

140 + (140 - 120) = 160

Also to get the Re-seasonalized forecast for the next year first quarter, we say

160*1.1 = 176

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