Sherrie sold about $800 worth of produce last weekend at a farmer's market, but it was sunny and warm both days. this saturday and sunday are both supposed to be rainy, so she thinks fewer people will attend. she estimates she'll only sell about three-fourths of her total for last time, or $600. this is an example of

In this situation Sherrie is forecasting her sales for this upcoming weekend. There are different types of forecasting methods however Sherrie is specifically using a lost-horse forecasting. Lost-horse forecasting is defined as taking the last known value of an item, listing the factors that could impact, assessing whether they'd have a negative or positive affect on the situation and then finalizing the forecast. Since, Sherrie believes that the rain will have a negative affect this time on her sales from $800 and bringing them down to $600, she is using a lost-horse forecast to base her outcome.