Estudio de caso teorema de bayes. las historias de casos clínicos indican que diversas enfermedades producen sistemas similares. suponga que un conjunto particular de síntomas, que se denotarán como evento m, ocurre solo cuando se presenta cualquiera de tres enfermedades, a, b o c, (para mayor simplicidad, supondremos que las enfermedades a, b y c son mutuamente excluyentes). estudios realizados demuestran estas probabilidades de adquirir las tres enfermedades: p(a) = 0,02 p(b) = 0,03 p(c) = 0,4 las probabilidades de desarrollar los síntomas m, dada una enfermedad especifica, son: p(m|a)=0,80 p(m|b)=0,97 p(m|c)=0,60 suponiendo que una persona enferma presente los síntomas m. ¿cuál es la probabilidad de que la persona tenga la enfermedad a?

Ashielded metal arc-welding operation is accomplished in a work cell by a fitter and a welder. the fitter takes 5.5 min to load components into the welding fixture at the beginning of the work cycle, and 1.5 min to unload the completed weldment at the end of the cycle. the total ength of the weld seams 1200 mm, and the travel speed used by the welder averages 300 mm/min. every 600 mm of seam length, the welding stick must be changed, which takes 0.8 min. while the fitter is working, the welder is idle (resting): and while the welder is working the fitter is idle. (a) determine the average arc-on time as a fraction of the work cycle time. (b) how much improvement in arc-on time would result if the welder used flux-cored arc welding (manually operated), given that the spool of weld wire must be changed every 10 weldments, and it takes the welder 5.0 min to accomplish the change? (c) what are the production rates for these two cases (weldments completed per hour)? attach your work and solutions.