Read these sentences from the text:

the fall of fort sumter in april, 1861, did not produce the civil war crisis. for many months, the gigantic struggle then imminent had been painfully discernible to far-seeing men. in 1858, lincoln had forewarned the country in his "house divided" speech.

based on the description provided, the author would say lincoln could have

predicted the war
prevented the war
started the war
won the war