Dr. hunt has been teaching introductory psychology for 15 years. in each class, before the first lecture, she asks the students to fill out a short questionnaire in which they predict what their major will be and say how confident they are in their prediction. she then keeps track of what each student actually ends up majoring in. over the years, about 45 percent of her students have correctly predicted their major, but her students' degree of confidence in this prediction has been about 75 percent on average. this illustrates an error in thinking called: