The developed regions as a whole will experience a
shrinking of population after 2040. According to the
medium-variant projection of the United Nations, the
world’s population is likely to increase from 7.6 billion in
2017 to 8.6 billion by 2030, the target year of the
Sustainable Development Goals, and to 9.8 billion in
2050.1 Most of this increase will take place in the
developing regions, while the developed regions will, for
the first time in recorded history, start to experience
negative population growth by around 2040 or 2050.
Under a scenario that assumes a net migration of zero,
the projected population of the developed regions would
be nine per cent smaller in 2050 than if current migration
trends continued. With no migration, or with equivalent
levels of immigration and emigration, the population of
the developing regions would be about one per cent
larger in 2050 than if current migration trends continued.
With fertility falling, the contribution of migration to
population change is likely to increase. Total fertility,
which stands at 2.5 births per woman at the world level
today, is projected to fall to 2.2 in 2050. Fertility in the
developed regions, which fell below the replacement
level of 2.1 births per woman shortly before 1980,
stands currently at 1.7 births per woman. Birth rates in
many developing countries, while declining, remain
relatively high. In the long run, the trend towards lower
fertility rates could result in an eventual stabilization of
the world’s population at around 11 billion people.
Migration already makes an important contribution
to population growth. Since the 1950s, the developed
regions continuously gained population due to positive
net migration. From 1950-1970 to 2000-2010, the level
of net migration to the developed regions increased
from 0.3 million to 3.1 million migrants per year.
However, the net inflow of migrants fell to about 2.2
million persons annually between 2010 and 2015.
Since the 1990s, migration has been the primary
source of population growth in the developed
regions. Migration is projected to be the only driver of
population growth in the developed regions starting after
2020. By 2050, it is expected that the population of the
developed regions will start to decline in size, as the net
inflow of migrants will no longer be sufficient to
compensate for the excess of deaths over births. The
impact of outmigration on population growth in the
developing regions is expected to remain minimal.
Indeed, for the next several decades, it is expected that
elevated levels of fertility in the developing regions will
continue to dwarf the role of net migration, which is
negative but relatively small (figure 1).
Migration and population change - drivers and impacts
Net migration refers to the difference between
numbers of immigrants and emigrants, who arrive in
or depart from a particular country or area in a given
time period, irrespective of country of birth or
citizenship. The “medium variant” of the United
Nations population projections assumes a
continuation of recent levels of net migration in future
years, whereas the “zero-net-migration scenario”
assumes that numbers of immigrants and emigrants
will be equal, starting in the period from 2015 to 2020.
Comparing these two scenarios provides useful
insights into the contribution of international
migration to population change
Explanation:
