What is the forecasted sale of ice cream in the month of November using the 4-period moving averages?

The forecasted sale for the month of November is $.

$10

Explanation:

The question is incomplete without the values of the sale that will enable one determine the forecasted sale for the month of November.

Moving averages are used to make predictions in such a way that you smoothen out monthly, seasonal or other periodic variations.

It is known as a 4 point moving average because the mean of four items of data is being found every time.

After finding the average of the first 4 data in the first one, the oldest piece of data is replaced by the newest one in each subsequent ones.

For instance: if for the month of January to December, we have sales ($) data of 5, 6, 4, 3, 8, 4, 10, 15, 6, 9, 6, 4.

The four point moving average for month 4 to month 12 would be as follows:

m4 = (5+6+4+3)/4 = 18/4 = 4.5

m5 = (6+4+3+8)/4

m6 = (4+3+8+4)/4

m7 = (3+8+4+10)/4

m8 = (8+4+10+15)/4

m9 = (4+10+15+6)/4

m10 = (10+15+6+9)/4 = 40/4 = 10

m11 = (15+6+9+6)/4

m12 = (6+9+6+4)/4

The forecast of sale in November is the forecast for month 11.

The forecast for month 11 is just the moving average for the month before that. That is, the moving average for month 10 = m10 = 10

Forecast for November sale = $10

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