the racial and ethnic makeup of the American people is in flux. New immigrants from Asia and Latin America have added a large measure of cultural and phenotypic diversity to the American population in recent decades, just as waves of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe did a century ago (Bean and Stevens 2003; Higham 1988; Lieberson and Waters 1988: Ch. 2; Thompson and Whelpton 1933: Ch. 2). Moreover, the boundaries between racial and ethnic groups are becoming blurred by high rates of intermarriage and the growing number of persons with mixed ancestry (Lee and Bean 2004).
Descriptions and projections of the racial and ethnic composition of the American people appear kaleidoscopic, with varied accounts and interpretations. Some commentators anticipate a new melting pot, often labeled as the “browning of America,” characterized by continued blurring of once-distinct racial and ethnic divisions (Rodriguez 2003). This interpretation is consistent with the thesis of the declining significance of race and ethnicity in American society. Others see new racial divisions arising as some immigrant groups are allowed to integrate with an expanded and privileged white population, while other groups are “racialized” as disadvantaged brown and black minorities (Bonilla-Silva and Glover 2004; Golash-Boza 2006). These conflicting accounts arise, in part, because of differing ideological presuppositions, but also because racial and ethnic identities are not mutually exclusive or immutable (Barth 1969; Alba 1999).
The US Census Bureau recently released population projections showing that non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority of the population in 2042 (US Census Bureau 2008b; Roberts 2008). Most media accounts of these forecasts neglect to report that whites (as opposed to non-Hispanic whites) are actually projected to remain the large majority (upwards of 70 percent in 2050) of the US population (for earlier accounts, see Pellegrini 2000; US Census Bureau 2004). Census Bureau projections by race are flawed, however, because they ignore the relatively high levels of intermarriage and the variations in racial and ethnic identities of mixed-ancestry descendants (Hirschman 2002; Perlmann 2002). More nuanced population projections, produced by the 1997 National Research Council Panel on the Demographic and Economic Impacts of Immigration, incorporate alternate assumptions about current and future trends in immigration, intermarriage, and identity choices (Smith and Edmonston 1997: Ch. 3). These projections, subsequently updated by Edmonston, Lee, and Passel (2002), also show a decline in the proportion of non-Hispanic whites, although not as rapid as in Census Bureau projections. Population projections by race are heavily dependent on the iden
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