Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series of sales. year quarter time series value yt 1 1 36 2 24 3 16 4 20 2 1 44 21. refer to data above. when a naïve method is used, what is the forecast on the sales in quarter 2 of year 2.

a. 20
b. 44
c. 27
d. 30 22.

refer to data in q21. when a three-quarter moving average is used, what is the forecast on the sales in quarter 2 of year 2.

a. 20.5
b. 44.3
c. 26.7
d. 30.2 23.

refer to data in q21. when a three-quarter weighted moving average (w1= 0.5, w2 = 0.3, and w3 = 0.2) is used, what is the forecast on the sales in quarter 2 of year 2. (hint: ft+1 = w1dt + w2d ( t – 1) + w3d ( t – 2) )

a. 24.4
b. 30.2
c. 22.8
d. 31.2

refer to data in q21. when an exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing parameter alpha of 0.30 and a q1-year 2 forecast is 20, what is the forecast on the sales in quarter 2 of year 2. (hint: ft+1 = ayt + (1 – a)ft)

a. 27.2
b. 29.2
c. 31.2
d. 33.2

refer to data in q21. the equation for the trend line of quarterly sales is ft = 24.4 + 1.2t. what is the forecast on the sales in quarter 2 of year 2. (hint: t=1 for q1-year 1, 2 for q2-year 1, and so on )

a. 31.2
b. 30.4
c. 32.2
d. 31.6