Two types of coins are produced at a factory: a fair coin and a biased one that comes up heads 60 percent of the time. We have one of these coins, but do not know whether it is a fair coin or a biased one. In order to ascertain which type of coin we have, we shall perform the following statistical test: We shall toss the coin 1000 times. If the coin lands on heads 550 or more times, then we shall conclude that it is a biased coin, whereas if it lands on heads less than 550 times, then we shall conclude that it is a fair coin. Use a normal approximation to compute the following probabilities (ignore continuity correction). (i) If the coin is actually fair, what is the probability that we shall reach a false conclusion? [7] (ii) If the coin is actually unfair, what is the probability that we shall reach a false conclusion? [8] Your

i) 0.1% probability that if the coin is actually fair, we reach a false conclusion.

ii) 0.05% probability that if the coin is actually unfair, we reach a false conclusion

Step-by-step explanation:

Binomial probability distribution

Probability of exactly x sucesses on n repeated trials, with p probability.

Can be approximated to a normal distribution, using the expected value and the standard deviation.

The expected value of the binomial distribution is:

The standard deviation of the binomial distribution is:

Normal probability distribution

Problems of normally distributed samples can be solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean and standard deviation , the zscore of a measure X is given by:

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

When we are approximating a binomial distribution to a normal one, we have that , .

In this problem, we have that:

Fair coin:

Comes up heads 50% of the time, so

1000 trials, so

So

If the coin lands on heads 550 or more times, then we shall conclude that it is a biased coin.

(i) If the coin is actually fair, what is the probability that we shall reach a false conclusion?

This is the probability that the number of heads is 550 or more, so this is 1 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 549.

has a pvalue of 0.9990

1 - 0.9990 = 0.001

0.1% probability that if the coin is actually fair, we reach a false conclusion.

(ii) If the coin is actually unfair, what is the probability that we shall reach a false conclusion?

Comes up heads 60% of the time, so

1000 trials, so

So

If the coin lands on less than 550 times(that is, 549 or less), then we shall conclude that it is a biased coin.

So this is the pvalue of Z when X = 549.

has a pvalue of 0.0005

0.05% probability that if the coin is actually unfair, we reach a false conclusion

step-by-step explanation:

ok one would be money, and the other would be refreshments or something similar. if each bag of popcorn is 5.00 and each drink is half of that that means drinks are 2.50 the proper way to do that would to look and see how much of each you can buy without exceeding a limit of 30.00

the car was traveling 40 mph before it started skidding. ( 2 points ) 17. was the driver were her brakes working at 75% efficiency or better? ( 2 points ) yes 29.

step-by-step explanation: