Groundhog's Day is on February 2nd each year. On this day, in Punxsatawney, Pennsylvania, thousands of onlookers watch to see if Phil, the groundhog, will cast a shadow. If he does, then six more weeks of winter are predicted. If he doesn't, then an early spring is predicted. Historically, Phil's prediction has only been correct about 40% of the time.

Using complete sentences, design a simulation to determine the probability that Phil's prediction will be correct at least two out of the next three years. Make sure to explain how you would use the simulation to determine the probability.