Candy. Someone hands you a box of a dozen chocolate-covered candies, telling you that half are vanilla creams and the other half peanut butter. You pick candies at random and discover the first three you eat are all vanilla.

a) If there really were 6 vanilla and 6 peanut butter candies in the box, what is the probability that you would have picked three vanillas in a row?

b) Do you think there really might have been 6 of each? Explain.

c) Would you continue to believe that half are vanilla if the fourth one you try is also vanilla? Explain.