A football team is losing by 14 points near the end of a game, the team scores two touchdowns (worth 6 points each) before the end of the game. After each touchdown the coach must decide whether to go for 1 point with a kick (which is successful 99% of the time) or 2 points with a run or pass (which is successful 45% of the time).
If the team goes for 2 points after each touchdown, what is the probability that the team wins?