Or a set of time series data, the following measures of forecast accuracy
were found using the naive method as the forecast for the next period.
MAE = 5.00
MSE = 25.40
MAPE = 34.93%
For the same time series data, the following measures of forecast accuracy were found using the average of all the historical data as the forecast for the next period.
MAE = 3.11
MSE = 11.21
MAPE = 22.43%
Which method, the naive method or using the average of all the historical data,
appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data? Explain
A. Using the naive method appears to provide more accurate forecasts, because
MAE, MSE, and MAPE using that method are all lower than MAE, MSE, and
MAPE using the average of all the historical data.
B. Using the average of all the historical data appears to provide more accurate
forecasts, because MAE, MSE, and MAPE using that method are all lower than
MAE, MSE, and MAPE using the naive method.
C. Using the average of all the historical data appears to provide more accurate
forecasts, because MAE, MSE, and MAPE using that method are all higher than
MAE, MSE, and MAPE using the naive method.
D. Using the naive method appears to provide more accurate forecasts, because
MAE, MSE, and MAPE using that method are all higher than MAE, MSE, and
MAPE using the average of all the historical data.