Acompany is about to launch a new cell phone model. in the past, 40% of its cell phones have launched successfully. before any cell phone is launched, the company conducts market research and receives a report predicting favorable or unfavorable sales. in the past, 70% of successful cell phones and 20% of unsuccessful cell phones received favorable reports.

what is the probability that the new cell phone will receive a favorable report, given that the cell phone launch is successful?

0.45
0.54
0.64
0.70

Hence, the probability is:

0.70

Let x be the total cell phones.

Let A denote the event of cell phone will receive a favorable report.

B denote the event that the cell phone is launched successfully.

Now we have to find the probability:

P(A|B)

We know that P(A|B) is calculated as:

Now it is given that:

40% of its cell phones have launched successfully.

i.e.

( Since,

Also,

In the past, 70% of successful cell phones and 20% of unsuccessful cell phones received favorable reports.

So, Number of successfully launched+favorable cell phones is successful are:

40% of 70% of the total cell phones.

i.e.

Hence, the probability P(A|B) is:

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Hence, the probability is:

0.70

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