A large city’s transit department claims that only 10% of city buses run off schedule. To test this claim, a random sample of 10 buses is chosen at random. Five of the buses are running off schedule. To see how unusual this sample of buses is, a simulation of 100 trials was conducted under the assumption that 10% of the buses run off schedule. A dotplot titled city buses has number of buses running off schedule on the x-axis, and frequency on the y-axis. 0, 12; 1, 26; 2, 22; 3, 16; 4, 11; 5, 2; 6, 1.

Based on the dotplot of the simulation results and the sample of 10 buses, which conclusion can be drawn?

The true probability that a city bus is running off schedule is 3%.
If we continued to take more samples of 10 buses, the center of the distribution would shift to 1.
It is most likely that exactly one out of 10 buses is running off schedule.
There is about a 3% chance that 5 or more buses are running off schedule. This is unusual and is convincing evidence that the true probability that a bus is off schedule is more than 10%.