A lie detector test is accurate 70% of the time, meaning that for 30% of the times a suspect is telling the truth, the test will conclude that the suspect is lying, and for 30% of the times a suspect is lying, the test will conclude that he or she is telling the truth. A police detective arrested a suspect who is one of only four possible perpetrators of a jewel theft. If the test result is positive (i. e., concludes that the subject is guilty), what is the probability that the arrested suspect is actually guilty