Directions Read the instructions for this self-checked activity. Type in your response to each question, and check your answers. At the end of the activity, write a brief evaluation of your work.
Activity
Organizing a fundraiser is a tough job, but calculating probabilities can improve your chances of getting pledges and donations. Let's look at the expected values, or empirical data.
From the previous years’ donor lists, you have probability information about:
the types of donors
whether they pledged on the phone
whether they actually donated
The types of donors on your calling list and their probabilities are:
gave last year (L), 40%
gave in the past but not last year (P), 30%
new contacts (N), 30%
You can also make these assumptions based on information about past and prospective donors:
Of last year's donors, 60% will pledge again and 70% of them will actually send the donation.
Of past donors, 50% will pledge again and 50% of them will actually donate.
Of new contacts, 20% pledge and 40% of them actually donate.
The average amount pledged to your organization is:
$270 from those who gave last year
$150 from those who gave in the past but not last year
$135 from new contacts
Use this information to answer these questions.

Question 1
Make a tree diagram or use conditional probabilities to calculate the probability of getting a donation from a donor of each type.