Probability and Likelihood A team of scientists is studying the animals at a nature reserve. They capture the animals; mark them so they can identify each animal; and then release them back into the park. The table gives the number of animals they’ve identified. Use this information to complete the tasks that follow.
Animal || Total in Park || NumberMarked
elk || 5,625 || 225
wolf || 928 || 232
cougar || 865 || 173
bear || 1,940 || 679
mountain goat || 328 || 164
deer || 350 || 105
moose || 215 || 86

Part A
What is the probability of the next elk caught in the park being unmarked? Write the probability as a fraction, a decimal number, and a percentage?

Part B
Describe the likelihood of the next elk caught being unmarked.

Part C
Describe a simulation that you can use to model this situation.

Part D
What is the probability of the next wolf caught in the park being unmarked? Write the probability as a fraction, a decimal number, and a percentage.

Part G
In the unit, you found the probability of a compound event by identifying the sample space. However, it is also possible to find the probability of a compound event without finding the sample space. To do this, multiply the probability of the first event by the probability of the second event. For example, the probability of flipping heads twice on a coin is ½ x ½ = ¼ . Using this idea, what is the probability that the next cougar and bear caught will both be unmarked?

Part H
Describe the likelihood that the next cougar and bear caught are both unmarked.

Part I
Describe a simulation that you can use to model this event.

Part J
Using the method described in part G, what is the probability that the next mountain goat, deer, and moose caught are all unmarked?

Part K
Describe the likelihood that the next mountain goat, deer, and moose caught are all unmarked.

Part L
Describe a simulation that you can use to model this event. Your simulation should be different from the one in part I.
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