suppose that 16% of crimes of this type end up in a criminal charge. this district has a false conviction rate of 5% (meaning the subject was charged but did not commit the crime) and fail to charge at a rate of 10% (meaning the person committed the crime but was not charged). if a randomly chosen suspect is charged, what is the chance that the suspect actually committed the crime

0.9 = 90% probability that the suspect actually committed the crime.

Step-by-step explanation:

Conditional Probability

We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is

In which

P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.

is the probability of both A and B happening.

P(A) is the probability of A happening.

In this question:

Event A: Charged

Event B: Committed the crime.

16% of crimes of this type end up in a criminal charge.

This means that

Probability of being charged and committing the crime:

90% of 16%, so:

What is the chance that the suspect actually committed the crime?

0.9 = 90% probability that the suspect actually committed the crime.

geometry: triangles

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call the larger triangle abc

then the smaller triangle cde is similar to abc (all angles are equal, aaa).  

ab is the side that is 36, and we wish to find de, the side corresponding to ab

area_cde = area_abc - area_cde --> area_abc / area_cde = 2

let x=length of de

ratio of areas = (ratio of sides)^2

+2+=+%2836%2fx%29%5e2+

+2+=+1296%2fx%5e2+

++x%5e2+=+1296%2f2+=+648+

25.45584