Is Suzy's reasoning correct? Forty percent of the beads in a bag of more than
10,000 beads are yellow. Suzy pulls out 10 beads, one
at a time with replacement, and notes that eight of
these beads are yellow. She says the next bead pulled
out will not be yellow because a yellow bead has been
pulled out too many times in a row.
Yes, it is unlikely that she would pull out so many
yellow beads, so the next bead cannot be yellow.
Yes, Suzy has correctly decided that more than
40% of the beads in this large bag are yellow.
No, if a yellow bead is pulled 8 out of 10 times, the
bag of beads is unfairly weighted toward yellow.
No, it is true that the probability of pulling a yellow
bead is 0.40, but Suzy should not expect that exactly
40% of such a small number of beads pulled will be
yellow