Psychologist philip tetlock collected more than 27,000 expert predictions of world events. he repeatedly found that experts were percent confident in their prediction but were correct less than percent of the time.

Passage 2 — from catherine beecher, “treatise on the domestic economy”it appears, then, that it is in america, alone, that women are raised to equality with the other sex; and that, both in theory and practice, their interests are regarded as of equal value. they are made subordinate in station, only where a regard to their best interests demands it, while, as if in compensation for this, by custom and courtesy, they are always treated as superiors. universally in this country, through every class of society, precedence is given to woman, in all the comforts, conveniences, and courtesies, of life.in civil and political affairs, american women take no interest or concern, except so far as they sympathize with their family and personal friends; but in all cases, in which they do feel a concern, their opinions and feelings have a consideration, equal, or even superior, to that of the other sex.in matters pertaining to the education of their children, in the selection and support of a clergyman; in all benevolent enterprises, and in all questions relating to morals or manners, they have a superior influence. in such concerns, it would be impossible to carry a point, contrary to their judgment and feelings; while an enterprise, sustained by them, will seldom fail of success.if those who are bewailing themselves over the fancied wrongs and injuries of woman in this nation, could only see things as they are, they would know, that, whatever remnants of a barbarous or aristocratic age may remain in our civil institutions, in reference to the interests of women, it is only because they are ignorant of them, or do not use their influence to have them rectified; for it is very certain that there is nothing reasonable, which american women would unite in asking, that would not readily be bestowed.the preceding remarks, then, illustrate the position, that the democratic institutions of this country are in reality no other than the principles of christianity carried into operation, and that they tend to place woman in her true position in society, as having equal rights with the other sex; and that, in fact they have secured to american women a lofty and fortunate position, which, as yet, has been attained by the women of no other nation.analysis1. when beecher speaks of women’s “best interests” and their “true position in society,” what does she mean? 2. according to beecher, what trade-offs must american women make to obtain their “lofty and fortunate position” in society? in your view, is it a fair exchange? 3. according to beecher, in what realms do women naturally and legitimately exercise power? 4. on what grounds does beecher base her faith that american women can attain anything they “reasonably” ask, and how does she explain any “remnants” of bad treatment that might remain in the present?

Ratification of the constitution did not come easy. two groups fought over whether or not the constitution was a good government for us: the federalists and anti-federalists. if these factions existed today, which group do you think you would support? compose a paragraph explaining which group you would support. explain why you would support either group by including at least 3 examples of beliefs you support/disagree with.

Which of the following scenarios is an example of attentional blink? click or tap a choice to answer the question. while grading a student’s essay, a professor does not notice the mistake in the following sentence: “metacognition is the the awareness of one’s own thought processes.” a waiter is telling two friends about the daily specials when a neighboring table erupts in laughter. the friends ask the waiter to repeat the last few items because their attention was diverted by the sudden loud laughs. you watch television while you study for a language exam. the next day, you are unable to recall the majority of the new vocabulary you thought you had memorized. you are at a loud concert, and you are able to concentrate on the music while blocking out the conversations around you, cell phone rings, and other irrelevant stimuli.