Ray is trying to determine if his 8-year-old daughter is telling the truth about an incident that happened when she was 4 years old. She claims that someone stole her doll and then ran over it with a car. Her descriptions of the event are rather vague, however. What is the likelihood that she is remembering a real event?

the likelihood that this event actually happened is very low

Explanation:

Based on the scenario being described within the question it can be said that the likelihood that this event actually happened is very low. Mostly due to the fact that at it is rather hard to recall memories from the age of 4 or below, but the memories that are recalled are trauma's which are recalled with great detail. Therefore since she is stating the overall scenario and not details it is likely that this is a false memory.