Why did john jay believe the colonies would win the war against britain

John Jay believed the colonies would win the war against Britain, because Britain was being weakened by France and it's continuous and lengthy war with the western continental country, that it would accept the colonists terms and not want to go to war, because of it's already weakened army and raising taxes to fund the army would only cause upheaval within the British Isles. However, this proved incorrect, as Britain was determined to keep the Thirteen colonies under British rule and under the British monarchy. Nevertheless, at the end of the American Revolution, the Thirteen Colonies became completely independent and have been independent ever since.