A manufacturer claims that its drug test will detect steroid use (that is, show positive for an athlete who uses steroids) 95% of the time. Further, 15% of all steroid-free individuals also test positive. 10% of the rugby team members use steroids. Your friend on the rugby team has just tested positive. The correct probability tree looks like

The probability tree is;

                            0.95        

          0.1              0.05        

[  P  ]

          0.9             0.15                                                                  

                             0.85                

Step-by-step explanation:

Given the data in the question;

10% of the rugby team members use steroids

so Probability of using steroid; P( use steroid ) = 10% = 0.10

Probability of not using steroid; P( no steroid use ) = 1 - 0.10 = 0.90

Since the test show positive for an athlete who uses steroids, 95% of the time.

Probability of using steroids and testing positive = 95% = 0.95

Probability of using steroids and testing Negative = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05

Also from the test, 15% of all steroid-free individuals also test positive.

so

Probability of not using steroids and testing positive = 15% = 0.15

Probability of not using steroids and testing negative = 1 - 0.15 = 0.85

To set up the probability tree, Let;

represent steroid use

represent no steroid use

represent test positive

represent test negative

so we have;

                            0.95        

          0.1              0.05        

[  P  ]

          0.9             0.15                                                                  

                             0.85                

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